The probability of occurrence of the global economic crisis next year is very high. About it URA.RU told the leading expert of Institute of contemporary development, economist Nikita Maslennikov.
«The probability of a crisis in 2021 is close to 50%. This will happen in any case, the only question is when the crisis starts. One of the world’s economic cycle was not abolished, and all the time he needs to happen,» — said the expert. According to Maslennikov, at the time of the onset of the financial crisis can influence the situation with coronavirus. «For example, if the peak of illness will occur in April—may, the crisis can happen at the beginning of 2021 If the disease is stamped out in February—March, the crisis will move to the middle of the year,» — said the economist. The economist does not exclude the scenario in which the global crisis because of the coronavirus will begin this year.
«The probability of this is 20%. The following year, this percentage increases, because it will start to detonate other accumulated risks: global debt, the deceleration in world trade, disruptions in production chains, forming a commodity service», — explained the expert. In this situation, Maslennikov recommends that the Russians not to postpone necessary purchases for a later date, and to start them now, before prices began to rise. «The long-term things or currency is better to buy now. Also if you have the opportunity to fix something in the framework of the health, it is better to do that now. We may not have enough money», — concluded the expert.